2018 is a road for new energy auto companies

This article is a supplement to yesterday's article. Since the price war has begun, it will have a profound impact on players in existing industries. Several automobile companies that specialize in cars this year have fallen into a bad situation. It may be that for all new energy auto companies in 2018, it is a hurdle. Can it be passed in the past?

The problem of Tesla, we discussed a lot before, mainly the output of the Model 3 also has continuous consumption of cash flow. Now there are also a bunch of people who continue to look at Tesla.

BYD's stock price fluctuates, mainly due to the rapid decline in net profit in the first quarter of this year.

Let's talk about BYD, especially its 200,000 goal.

In the first quarter of 2018, a total of 28,499 new energy vehicles were sold, of which Song DM and Qin PHEV were 11784 and 9709, respectively, accounting for more than half.

As a whole, BYD faces some problems and can be clearly shown by the following figure. The overall market share of BYD is more than 20%. In pure electric vehicles, e5 accounts for about 6% of the market, while PHEV has already got 62% of the market.

From this practical point of view, the current market share of BYD's PHEV has reached a relatively high point. As shown in the chart below, the trend in the first quarter of 2018 is exactly the same as last year's trend. With the domestic independent brands, such as Geely's Borui, zero gram; Great Wall's P8, Great Wall's CS75PHEV, the Beijing Auto Show, in fact, the PHEV market has also begun to lively. The promotion of such a market will inevitably substantially erode the market for restricted purchases and restricted cities.

At the current point in time, Toyota's two low-priced PHEVs have yet to come in. The masses of PHEVs on the MQB platform of the masses have not yet come in. At present, there is no hot spot for competition. The Peugeot Citroen and Honda's PHEV will also form a downward pressure on the PHEV market.

After the Beijing auto show, the BYD Qin EV450, Song EV400, and e5 450 were formally listed. The pre-sale range was 14.99-16.99 million yuan, 18.99-19.99 million yuan, and 12.99-13.99 million yuan, which was a bit high, and the price is bound to increase further. Go down some more.

The subsidy for these three vehicles is still very rich, but also because of the new regulations that will be implemented after June 2017, the entire amount will be pulled up until the second half of the year. During the transition period, the impact of PHEV is minimal.

Actually, we look at the proportion of automotive products. The "Transition of BYD" mentioned in an article a few days ago.

Considering BYD's early fuel vehicle products as 1.0 era, Qin/Tang and other products are in the 2.0 era and can find a problem:

The 1.0 era product still plays a key role in BYD's fuel truck.

In the 2.0 era, BYD paid too much attention to electric vehicles and neglected the development of fuel vehicles. This resulted in BYD's sales of fuel vehicles for 24 years at 245,000, which was -24.6% year-on-year.

Looking at the proportion of new energy vehicles in each quarter since 2017, we can find problems.

What is more important is that BYD does the development of batteries for new energy vehicles and limits the size of its overall automobile to one place. The car is also particularly weighty. When there is no scale, in order to achieve gross profit, it is necessary to use phased subsidies for new energy vehicles, leading to the sustainability of the entire accounts receivable.

It seems that the entire scale remains inconvenient, but BYD, a fuel vehicle, has lost a lot of customers and its competitiveness has been declining.

From the perspective of pursuing financial affairs, there is nothing wrong with making decisions.

The more important issue is: BYD needs batteries to be found on various battlefields because of the needs of batteries, so the bus is making a fuss around the entire city's traffic on the clouds.

BYD started production capacity in 2014, from 4Gwh, currently up to 16Gwh (6GWwh ternary battery and 10Gwh lithium iron phosphate battery)

Before because of the need to digest LFP production capacity, most of the BEVs use LFP batteries, and the subsidy requirements for the first few vehicles have changed the demand for the ternary batteries. From the 2018 investment, it is necessary to Three yuan to go, it is expected to add 10Gwh capacity

In 2017, PHEV tried to use triple-cell batteries; in 2018, BEV used triple-cell batteries, and E6 and buses continued to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. The external process also needs to continue to implement a lot of efforts to strip.

BYD's 3.0 era: Separation of cars and batteries, the battery as a separate business unit to face the Chinese market, and the car to the rationalization of the direction of development, you deliberately stressed that PHEV does not work in many markets, when the overall strength of the big city competition, Pay attention to the appearance, the chassis and the scale of the fuel vehicle market share. How to make a car or a car?

The new product improved BYD's new round of products and improved its architecture development capabilities. From the original purely retrograde improvement, it became a new development architecture. In the appearance of the interior shape has made great strides. The brand-new design language gets rid of the shadow of the cottage car, the interior design also has its own brand characteristics. BYD also hired chassis experts from Germany to improve the chassis

Gasoline + PHEV dual-route parallel SUV, MPV, sedan full-class launch forces Tang II and Song Max products, both released the traditional power and PHEV two versions, you can see BYD is trying to improve the legacy of the 2.0 era.

Summary: I think BYD is a typical microcosm of China's new energy vehicles. When financial subsidies begin to recede, relying on subsidies from new energy vehicles to raise the gross profit of the entire company can hardly be sustained. In the face of the retreat of new energy vehicles, how to maintain the original high position, especially the next round of 2019 switching, the battery industry is even more terrible.

The existing vehicle companies in China must effectively meet the needs of the market and allocate a comprehensive and comprehensive product spectrum structure to cope with the unstable market changes. The betting of new energy vehicles is a great risk. After the subsidy retreats, new energy vehicles will maintain low profitability in the medium and long term. Gasoline vehicles are the absolute guarantee of sales and profits.

Writing articles is also very contradictory. The explosive thinking of new car companies in China is based on the current consumption structure. The most mainstream is the market below 12W.

Sometimes the speed is not enough. If you enter ahead of schedule, the logistics and costs cannot keep up. This gap requires us to continue to work hard.

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