In 2010, China’s semiconductor industry achieved brilliant results. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it increased from 110 billion yuan in 2009 to 144 billion yuan in 2010, with a growth rate of 31%. Among them, the IC design industry reached 55 billion yuan, an increase of 107% compared with 26.5 billion yuan in 2009.
How does the industry think about how to achieve such beautiful results, relying on the thrust of policy documents? Maybe everyone will not believe: It depends on a lot of investment? I am afraid that this is no proof. The more objective judgment is due to the general trend of the global semiconductor industry, especially the 40% high growth of the global generation industry. Therefore, China's semiconductor industry may not be able to show any specific features at present, and it is more likely to follow the general trend. Therefore, the Chinese semiconductor industry must make full use of the excellent environment for the current global OEM and seize the opportunity to accelerate development.
What is a good external environment?
The current industrial environment is very beneficial to the foundry. In the high-end process, many IDM manufacturers stopped at 32nm, and began to use the fablite strategy of external cooperation to release orders to OEMs. In terms of low-end and mid-range processes, according to SEMI, in 2009, 27 global chip plants of various sizes were closed, 15 were closed in 2010, and there were 8 closed plants announced in 2011, almost all of which were 4-8 inches. production line. The continuous closure of factories throughout the country is bad news for some people, but it is the gospel of the global industry.
In addition, with the development of emerging industries, many top-level IDM plants are repositioning. On the one hand, they implement fablite and entrust advanced manufacturing processes to OEMs. On the other hand, due to the closure of some 4-8-inch chip production lines, many There is a shortage of capacity for mature products, such as IGBTs and powerICs. However, these big companies are worried about expanding their production capacity and increasing investment may be risky and hesitant, but this is the best time for Chinese chip manufacturers to seek cooperation. In addition, including anti-Korean programs such as Elpida's memory, the Taiwanese-based manufacturers are definitely the first choice, but it is also difficult to coordinate with the contradiction between the market and capital, and it may also be an opportunity for China. Finally, the 12th Five-Year Plan indicates that China's semiconductor industry is trying to launch another shock, so various preferential policies and support will further promote the industry's accelerated progress.
The competitive environment is not optimistic. In 2010, TSMC’s revenue was 419.5 billion TWD, about US$14 billion (due to the appreciation of the Taiwan dollar, for reference only), the growth was greater than 40%, UMC was NT$120.4 billion, an increase of 35,96%, and the world’s advanced It was 160,34 billion Taiwan dollars, an increase of 27,37%.
Global OEM competitors have increased their investment and production capacity. If TSMC has invested 5.9 billion U.S. dollars in 2010, Zhang Zhongmou recently declared that investment in 2011 will not be lower than 2010. In addition to the 12% production capacity of TSMC in 2011, TSMC will increase its production capacity by 30% to 315,000 units. The Shanghai Songjiang 8-inch plant, which originally served as a bridgehead, has also begun to change. First, the process has been relaxed to 0,13 microns. The production capacity has been expanded in 2010. To 50,000 tablets, it is expected to further expand to about 60,000 tablets in 2011. TSMC recently announced that it will invest another US$10 billion to build fab16 on the basis of the fab12, fab14 and fab15 three-seat 12-inch production lines. By 2014, TSMC’s total 12-inch wafers will have a capacity of 600,000 wafers per month.
In addition, it can be expected that because the current "political constraints" are actually like a window covering paper, plus the current TSMC process capability has reached 28nm, so relaxing the technology is limited to 90nm, or even 65nm is possible.
In addition, TSMC has started mass production of 28nm process since 2011 and currently has more than 70 design-tapeouts. The progress is rapid. It is estimated that it will contribute 1-2% of revenue in the second half of the year (1-2 billion US dollars). Credits).
Zhang Zhongmou pointed out a few days ago that the annual growth rate of TSMC's revenue in 2011 will exceed 14% of the foundry industry. Therefore, the industry estimates that TSMC’s revenue for 2011 will be 490 billion to 500 billion yuan, and will challenge new highs. .
In addition, Robert Krakuauer, CFO of rising star GlobalFoundries, recently stated that in order to make the company become the world’s largest chip foundry manufacturer, Globalfoundries’ capital investment in the field of plants and equipment will reach US$5.4 billion this year. Compared with the $2.7 billion in 2010, it has doubled. GlobalFoundries' two 12-inch plants in Germany and Singapore together have a monthly production capacity of 72,000 units and are expected to increase to 95,000 units in 2011.
Since Globalfoundries was established in 2009, it has obtained orders from companies such as Qualcomm and STMicroelectronics. After obtaining these orders, Globalfoundries has reduced excessive reliance on AMD. Coleclair said that at the time Globalfoundries was founded, all of the company’s revenue came from AMD. Therefore, with the launch of Globalfoundries' new plant in New York State in 2012, its impact cannot be underestimated.
As for UMC's current 12-inch monthly production capacity of approximately 73,000 units, according to reports, its investment in 2011 was US$1.8 billion.
Another OEM dark horse Samsung surprised the industry, it is the world's largest manufacturer of DRAM and NAND, and the gap between Intel and Intel is getting smaller and smaller. Samsung recently revealed that its semiconductor investment plan for 2011 was 9.2 billion U.S. dollars, ranking first in the world. However, what is most surprising is that Samsung’s investment in OEM is increasing positively, from US$1.8 billion in 2010 to doubling to US$3.6 billion in 2011.
Concerns about the late start of Chinese semiconductors and the large gap between them and advanced competitors. However, the current investment and policies have not been able to be put in place, and there are still many imperfections in our mechanism. Many problems are in a dilemma. Among them, it often delays good timing for decision-making. Therefore, it is not clear to the industry how we can further narrow the gap.
Conclusion As China's semiconductor industry continues to advance under the general trend of the global semiconductor industry, it is the best policy to seize the opportunity and develop as soon as possible. In particular, many IDM companies will implement fablite and shut down a number of 4-8-inch chip factories, leaving China with many opportunities for cooperation. Faced with the active actions of competitors, the Chinese semiconductor industry can no longer hesitate and urgently needs the government to support the progress of the industry.
How does the industry think about how to achieve such beautiful results, relying on the thrust of policy documents? Maybe everyone will not believe: It depends on a lot of investment? I am afraid that this is no proof. The more objective judgment is due to the general trend of the global semiconductor industry, especially the 40% high growth of the global generation industry. Therefore, China's semiconductor industry may not be able to show any specific features at present, and it is more likely to follow the general trend. Therefore, the Chinese semiconductor industry must make full use of the excellent environment for the current global OEM and seize the opportunity to accelerate development.
What is a good external environment?
The current industrial environment is very beneficial to the foundry. In the high-end process, many IDM manufacturers stopped at 32nm, and began to use the fablite strategy of external cooperation to release orders to OEMs. In terms of low-end and mid-range processes, according to SEMI, in 2009, 27 global chip plants of various sizes were closed, 15 were closed in 2010, and there were 8 closed plants announced in 2011, almost all of which were 4-8 inches. production line. The continuous closure of factories throughout the country is bad news for some people, but it is the gospel of the global industry.
In addition, with the development of emerging industries, many top-level IDM plants are repositioning. On the one hand, they implement fablite and entrust advanced manufacturing processes to OEMs. On the other hand, due to the closure of some 4-8-inch chip production lines, many There is a shortage of capacity for mature products, such as IGBTs and powerICs. However, these big companies are worried about expanding their production capacity and increasing investment may be risky and hesitant, but this is the best time for Chinese chip manufacturers to seek cooperation. In addition, including anti-Korean programs such as Elpida's memory, the Taiwanese-based manufacturers are definitely the first choice, but it is also difficult to coordinate with the contradiction between the market and capital, and it may also be an opportunity for China. Finally, the 12th Five-Year Plan indicates that China's semiconductor industry is trying to launch another shock, so various preferential policies and support will further promote the industry's accelerated progress.
The competitive environment is not optimistic. In 2010, TSMC’s revenue was 419.5 billion TWD, about US$14 billion (due to the appreciation of the Taiwan dollar, for reference only), the growth was greater than 40%, UMC was NT$120.4 billion, an increase of 35,96%, and the world’s advanced It was 160,34 billion Taiwan dollars, an increase of 27,37%.
Global OEM competitors have increased their investment and production capacity. If TSMC has invested 5.9 billion U.S. dollars in 2010, Zhang Zhongmou recently declared that investment in 2011 will not be lower than 2010. In addition to the 12% production capacity of TSMC in 2011, TSMC will increase its production capacity by 30% to 315,000 units. The Shanghai Songjiang 8-inch plant, which originally served as a bridgehead, has also begun to change. First, the process has been relaxed to 0,13 microns. The production capacity has been expanded in 2010. To 50,000 tablets, it is expected to further expand to about 60,000 tablets in 2011. TSMC recently announced that it will invest another US$10 billion to build fab16 on the basis of the fab12, fab14 and fab15 three-seat 12-inch production lines. By 2014, TSMC’s total 12-inch wafers will have a capacity of 600,000 wafers per month.
In addition, it can be expected that because the current "political constraints" are actually like a window covering paper, plus the current TSMC process capability has reached 28nm, so relaxing the technology is limited to 90nm, or even 65nm is possible.
In addition, TSMC has started mass production of 28nm process since 2011 and currently has more than 70 design-tapeouts. The progress is rapid. It is estimated that it will contribute 1-2% of revenue in the second half of the year (1-2 billion US dollars). Credits).
Zhang Zhongmou pointed out a few days ago that the annual growth rate of TSMC's revenue in 2011 will exceed 14% of the foundry industry. Therefore, the industry estimates that TSMC’s revenue for 2011 will be 490 billion to 500 billion yuan, and will challenge new highs. .
In addition, Robert Krakuauer, CFO of rising star GlobalFoundries, recently stated that in order to make the company become the world’s largest chip foundry manufacturer, Globalfoundries’ capital investment in the field of plants and equipment will reach US$5.4 billion this year. Compared with the $2.7 billion in 2010, it has doubled. GlobalFoundries' two 12-inch plants in Germany and Singapore together have a monthly production capacity of 72,000 units and are expected to increase to 95,000 units in 2011.
Since Globalfoundries was established in 2009, it has obtained orders from companies such as Qualcomm and STMicroelectronics. After obtaining these orders, Globalfoundries has reduced excessive reliance on AMD. Coleclair said that at the time Globalfoundries was founded, all of the company’s revenue came from AMD. Therefore, with the launch of Globalfoundries' new plant in New York State in 2012, its impact cannot be underestimated.
As for UMC's current 12-inch monthly production capacity of approximately 73,000 units, according to reports, its investment in 2011 was US$1.8 billion.
Another OEM dark horse Samsung surprised the industry, it is the world's largest manufacturer of DRAM and NAND, and the gap between Intel and Intel is getting smaller and smaller. Samsung recently revealed that its semiconductor investment plan for 2011 was 9.2 billion U.S. dollars, ranking first in the world. However, what is most surprising is that Samsung’s investment in OEM is increasing positively, from US$1.8 billion in 2010 to doubling to US$3.6 billion in 2011.
Concerns about the late start of Chinese semiconductors and the large gap between them and advanced competitors. However, the current investment and policies have not been able to be put in place, and there are still many imperfections in our mechanism. Many problems are in a dilemma. Among them, it often delays good timing for decision-making. Therefore, it is not clear to the industry how we can further narrow the gap.
Conclusion As China's semiconductor industry continues to advance under the general trend of the global semiconductor industry, it is the best policy to seize the opportunity and develop as soon as possible. In particular, many IDM companies will implement fablite and shut down a number of 4-8-inch chip factories, leaving China with many opportunities for cooperation. Faced with the active actions of competitors, the Chinese semiconductor industry can no longer hesitate and urgently needs the government to support the progress of the industry.
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