Set-top box will lose its influence on DRAM market

According to IHS iSuppli's DRAM research report, despite the increasing DRAM content, the share of set-top boxes in the DRAM market will further decline in the coming years.

In terms of bit shipments, the share of DRAM used by set-top boxes (STBs) in 2010 was 1.06%, and this year it will drop to 0.97%. In addition to the expected short-term rebound in 2014, the share of STBs in the DRAM market will continue to decline and will reach 0.76% by 2015.

However, the DRAM bit shipments of the set-top box industry are increasing, and it is expected to reach 279.6 million Gb next year, and it is estimated to reach 666.6 million Gb by the end of 2015. The number of DRAMs used by each set-top box will also continue to increase. It will increase from 143.6MB in 2010 to 565.4MB in 2015, an increase of nearly three times.

However, this growth is difficult to prevent the set-top box's influence in the DRAM market from weakening. In contrast, the function of the set-top box has been greatly enhanced to compete with tablet computers, smart phones, game consoles, and televisions to gain a key position in networked homes. One of the most important features that have recently been added to set-top boxes is digital video recorders (DVRs), which allow consumers to easily record their favorite programs and watch them anytime after they have aired.

Set-top boxes that add functionality such as DVRs should have meant more processing power and more DRAM. However, even if the set-top box needs to use more DRAM, its overall demand for expansion will hardly match the demand for DRAM from smartphones and tablets.

In addition, the share of DRAM in the total bill of materials (BOM) of the set-top box is also lower than that of tablets or smartphones. IHS iSuppli Corporation dismantled four sets of STBs that claimed to have higher DRAM content than normal. The results showed that its memory accounted for only 3.3-8.5% of BOM. In contrast, DRAM accounts for 13-19% of smartphone or tablet BOMs.

Indeed, DRAM accounts for a high proportion of smartphones and tablet PCs, partly because it uses higher-cost NAND flash, and NAND is not used in set-top boxes at all. However, the proportion of DRAM in the set-top box BOM is only a single digit, indicating that DRAM manufacturers receive lower operating income from this field than other consumer electronics products.

IHS believes that as the share of set-top boxes in the DRAM market steadily declines, set-top boxes will be marginalized. It is hard to imagine that the set-top box's influence in the DRAM market can keep up with other products in the future, and it is even more impossible to surpass other products.

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