New energy vehicle concept broke out _ new energy vehicle market entered a comprehensive acceleration phase

**1. New Energy Vehicles Enter a Dual Policy and Market Phase** What kind of news has sparked the new energy vehicle market today? Let’s take a quick look. On September 9, during the 2017 China Automotive Industry Development (TEDA) International Forum held in Tianjin Binhai New Area, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology Xin Guobin revealed that China is studying the timetable for banning fuel vehicles. This means that the domestic fuel vehicle ban policy is now on the agenda. In fact, many developed countries have already made their positions clear regarding the phase-out of traditional vehicles. At the same time, the "double points policy" is also gaining momentum. In June this year, the Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council issued the Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Points for Passenger Vehicle Enterprises (Draft for Comment). Xin Guobin also mentioned that the double points policy will be officially released soon. This indicates that R&D and production of new energy vehicles will become a mandatory requirement for enterprises. It is expected that the future direction of the auto market will be dominated by new energy vehicles. With the potential ban on fuel vehicles and the transformation of new energy vehicles into policy mandates, it's no surprise that the market has seen a significant breakout this year. According to some brokerages, both policy and market are positive, and the new energy vehicle industry chain is entering its “Golden September” period. Let’s first look at the positive aspects of the policy. On September 6, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Preliminary Review Report on the Liquidation Review of the New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application (Replenishment of Electricity) in 2016,” which was the second public announcement for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles during the year. The frequency of such announcements has increased significantly. On September 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “Recommended Models for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (8th Batch in 2017).” Since then, eight batches of recommended models have been released this year, including 2,538 models from 184 companies. Now, let’s check the performance of the new energy vehicle market. In August, sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 54,000 units, up 80.6% year-on-year and 25% from the previous month. It is estimated that sales of new energy commercial vehicles in August were between 18,000 and 22,000 units, bringing total new energy vehicle sales to approximately 72,000–76,000 units. This is close to the monthly target of 90,000 units, with a growth rate of 89%–100%. The industry chain saw a 29%–36% increase. CIC believes that with the arrival of the “Golden September and Silver October” season and the gradual fulfillment of purchase orders, September’s monthly sales are expected to exceed 90,000 units, making the annual target of 700,000 units more achievable. Production and sales of new energy vehicles are gradually strengthening, and new energy commercial vehicles are being released more substantially. The turning point for new energy vehicles in production and sales is basically here. **2. Valuation Levels of New Energy Vehicle Stocks** Since the positive signals are so clear, investors can’t wait to jump on the bandwagon. However, before jumping in, let’s take a closer look at the valuation levels of new energy vehicle stocks. Since September, the new energy auto sector has been one of the most aggressive, with shares like Nanchuan rising over 56%, while Baotonglong, Hengdian East Magnetic, Dangsheng Technology, Yanfeng Lithium, and Tibet Holdings have all gained more than 30%. Looking back at this year, the cobalt industry saw an increase of over 886%, and stocks like Yanfeng Lithium, Jinyinhe, Nebula, and others rose more than 200%. Hongte Precision, Yahua Group, Huayou Cobalt, Yingboer, and Tianqi Lithium also saw gains exceeding 150%. For small investors, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of new energy concept stocks can reach hundreds of times, but even dozens of times could be considered. However, Lijun Jun noticed that some companies are still unprofitable. For example, Rongjie, Ankai Bus, and Western Resources were hot in September, but their semi-annual reports showed losses. Ankai Bus lost nearly 30 million yuan in the first half of the year, with net profit of only 627,300 yuan, down 39.4% compared to the same period last year. Western Resources had a net loss of 121 million yuan in the first half of the year. Finally, looking at market capitalization, among the new energy auto sectors, SAIC Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Great Wall Motors, Changan An Automobile, etc., are relatively large, but their PE levels are acceptable. BYD’s PE is now 31 times, and leading lithium battery stocks like Tianqi Lithium and Haofeng Lithium have relatively high valuations. **3. Sharp Rise in New Energy Vehicle Funds** Money Junjun found that several new energy vehicle funds have seen sharp increases since September, nearly three months ago. Take a few pure new energy vehicle funds as examples. The net value growth of New Energy B since September is 10.43%, and the net growth over the past three months is 47.32%. Shenwan Lingxin New Energy Vehicle Fund: the net value growth rate of the reinstated unit since September is 4.66%, and the net value over the past three months has risen by 17.5%. Its top ten holdings include SAIC Group, Yutong Bus, Huichuan Technology, BYD, Hongfa Shares, and Shanshan Shares—relatively pure new energy vehicle stocks. Jinxin New Energy Automobile Fund: the net growth rate of the reinstated unit since September is 2.36%, and the net value over the past three months has increased by 12.45%. Its top ten holdings include Futian Auto, Tuopu Group, and Junsheng Electronics—also relatively pure new energy vehicle stocks. Additionally, several funds that have invested in new energy vehicle concept stocks, such as China Sea Consumer Theme Selection, have increased by 24.77% over the past three months, Harvest Environmental Low Carbon by 18.98%, and Cinda’s Australian Silver Consumption by nearly 12.19%. Their top holdings include Gree Electric, Yanfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Pioneer Intelligence, Hongfa Shares, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech—companies involved in new energy vehicles. **4. The New Energy Vehicle Market Enters a Comprehensive Acceleration Stage** The global trend toward electrification, intelligence, and lightweighting in the automotive industry is irreversible, and all car manufacturers are joining the new energy vehicle manufacturing wave. So far, six countries worldwide have publicly announced plans to completely ban gasoline and diesel vehicles. In China, the production and sales of new energy passenger cars in August were impressive, and the dual-point policy for new energy vehicles has concluded. Analysts believe that the combination of policy and market is expected to gain momentum in September. With the gradual strengthening of new energy vehicle production and sales, the performance of industry chain companies in the second half of the year is guaranteed, and a double improvement in performance and valuation is expected. **Alternate Process Startup** Statistics show that in August 2017, China’s new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 54,000 units, up 80.6% year-on-year and 25% from the previous month, slightly exceeding market expectations. The sales of new energy commercial vehicles in August are expected to reach 18,000–22,000 units, bringing total new energy vehicle sales to 72,000–76,000 units. CIC Securities analyst Zhang Lei expects that with the arrival of the “Golden September and Silver October” period and the gradual fulfillment of purchase orders, September’s monthly sales are expected to exceed 90,000 units, and the annual target of 700,000 units is likely to be achieved. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have gradually strengthened, and new energy commercial vehicles have been released more substantially. The turning point for new energy vehicle production and sales is basically here. Currently, many countries are adjusting their development strategies, accelerating industrial layout in the new energy and intelligent network industries, and trying to occupy a new commanding height. In response to the timetable for some countries to stop producing and selling traditional energy vehicles, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, recently revealed that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also initiated research to formulate China’s own timetable for the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles. Pacific Securities analyst Zhang Xue said that China was originally the country with the strongest promotion of new energy vehicles. The study of a comprehensive ban on traditional fuel vehicles indicates that support is further upgraded, and the strategy for developing new energy vehicles is more determined. “Overall, the economy has entered a medium-speed growth stage, and the L-shaped trend has been shown for a long time. The new energy automobile industry has just started and will maintain a compound growth rate of 30% in the next few years. It is the industry with the most certain growth.” In particular, since 2017, China has launched 8 batches of “Recommended Models for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles,” which have accumulated 2,538 models from 188 enterprises, accounting for more than 70% of pure electric vehicles. In addition, 12 batches of “New Energy-Free Vehicles” have been introduced in the Catalogue of Purchase Taxes, with three batches released in 2017, and the pace is faster than ever. According to relevant reports, the “Parallel Management Measures for the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and New Energy Vehicles” will also be introduced soon. This will be the key factor in the post-subsidy era of new energy vehicles, and it will promote the development of new energy vehicles as an important turning point. “The state’s determination to support the development of the new energy automobile industry has been very clear. The follow-up of the double-point policy or the subsidy adjustment policy will be based on this principle,” said Liu Rui, an analyst at Everbright Securities. He expects that although this year’s subsidies have declined and affected the sales of new energy vehicles, the 2020 target of 2 million units remains unchanged, and sales will still maintain a compound growth rate of nearly 40%. **High Growth and High Sustainability** Following Volkswagen and Jianghuai, Daimler and BAIC, Zotye and Ford, Renault Nissan recently announced the establishment of a joint venture with Dongfeng Motor Group Co., Ltd.—Yijiete New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd.—to jointly develop electric and new energy vehicles. Another case of “marriage” has emerged. In addition, the Ministry of Transport issued a document stating that it is necessary to upgrade the professionalization level of cold chain logistics equipment and encourage the promotion and use of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly refrigerated and heat-insulated vehicles such as new energy vehicles. In the long run, policy support is strong and has a long-term mechanism. Industry leaders are accelerating their collaboration and achieving common growth. Traditional vehicle leaders are shifting toward new energy vehicles, and the industry has a large space and big opportunities. In the short term, the pressure on the entire industry chain is not small. It is necessary to quickly reduce prices to make up for the economic gap in the new country, and to improve technical levels and product performance to compete with fuel vehicles. Under the pressure, the industry continues to accelerate, and the leading footsteps of domestic and foreign companies keep moving forward. The price reduction rate in all links exceeds expectations, and new products open up real market demand. Zhongtai Securities firmly believes that new energy vehicles must be industries that are scarce in recent years and have high sustainability and growth. In terms of layout direction, Bohai Securities believes that the development of new energy vehicles will continue to improve in the second half of the year, and production and sales are expected to gradually increase. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in new energy passenger vehicles and operations, logistics special vehicles, and new energy buses. In addition, with the efforts of major domestic and foreign manufacturers to increase product development and promotion, cost-effective “explosion models” are expected to continue to be launched, thus promoting the popularity of intelligent networked vehicles. It is recommended to focus on the investment opportunities brought by “explosion models” and the impact of major industry events. “New energy vehicles replace ‘mechanical’ with ‘electricity.’ Power batteries are the core component of new energy vehicles. They have high technical content, large capital investment, and strong resource endowment, making them the focus of competition in the industry. Additionally, resource products represented by lithium carbonate, cobalt, wet-membrane, lithium-ion copper foil, and cathode materials have higher thresholds and are the top priority for investors,” said Zhang.

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