Few people suspect that LED technology is about to usher in the golden period of development in the next few years. On January 9th, at an industry forum held by Beihang University, Hong Bing, who has 18 years of experience in the field of lighting, said that in recent years, the average annual growth rate of the LED industry has remained at around 20% to 30%, while the national economy The average annual growth rate is around 8%. "This means that the growth rate of the LED industry is far greater than the growth rate of the national economy. If you pay attention to the stock market, it is not difficult to find that under the premise of the continuous economic turmoil in 2009, most of the optoelectronic enterprises maintain a strong growth rate. "He said.
General Manager of LED Times Network Hong Bing
But as Moore's Law concludes, today's sunrise industry does not mean that it will remain hot after three years. Any technology that is inevitable will be replaced by new technologies or applications after it has reached a certain stage.
Hong Bing said that since any technology can't get rid of the fate of being upgraded, what we can do is to try to find out the deep meaning of a technology and explore how to make technology better for the benefit of mankind. For example: Why does LED technology shine? How do you need to improve in the future to maintain technology? How do 3,000 small and medium-sized LED manufacturers in China compete with international manufacturers for market share?
Low carbon economy promotes LED technology development
The large-scale appearance of LED products appeared in the Beijing Olympic Games. The beautiful color changes made people realize the advantages of LED technology from the senses for the first time. Hong Bing said that LED lighting is different from the incandescent bulbs invented by Edison in 1879 and the halogen bulbs that have been improved on the basis of this. The latter uses physical or gas illumination, and the service life and luminous efficiency are greatly limited by the material properties. LED is an abbreviation of light emitting diode. It belongs to semiconductor components. The internal structure is actually a large PN junction. When minority carriers injected in some semiconductor materials are combined with majority carriers, they will be redundant. Energy is released in the form of light, which converts electrical energy directly into light energy.
LEDs have a very high luminous efficacy compared to conventional light sources. Hong Bing said that the light efficiency of ordinary incandescent lamps is 10lm/W, and the efficacy of halogen lamps is about 20lm/W. Today, the luminous efficiency of LED components has reached 80lm-100lm/w, and will increase to 150lm/w in the future. â€œThis means that LED lighting technology uses most of the energy effects in the illuminating process. With traditional incandescent lamps, only 5% of the energy is used for luminescence, and the remaining 95% of energy efficiency is squandered as heat or other forms of energy. "". â€œIn addition, LEDs are characterized by long life, easy switching, no mercury, and high degree of design freedom,â€ he added.
Zhang Youguang, dean of the School of Electronics and Information Engineering at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, added that the energy-saving features of LEDs are in line with the green and low-carbon goals of the Copenhagen conference in late 2009. At present, many countries have begun to propose plans to eliminate incandescent lamps and promote energy-saving lamps, and to make the semiconductor lighting energy-saving industry a new economic growth point in the future. In China, with the promotion of LED lighting technology, it is estimated that by 2015, the annual energy saving will be 40 billion kWh, equivalent to 40 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year.
The problems faced by the development of LED technology are the same as many other semiconductor technologies. LEDs are also facing the development law of three years of technology. Hong Bing said that although the development of LED technology is in full swing, it does not mean that the technology is flawless.
First of all, due to the influence of semiconductor material characteristics, LED has the characteristics of â€œnot afraid of heat and coldâ€. In the working environment with temperature higher than 125 ,, LED is unable to do anything. Therefore, heat dissipation technology is one of the main bottlenecks facing LED. In addition, the life of the driver circuit IC is another major factor limiting the development of LED technology. Although the LED lighting is said to be able to continuously emit 100,000 hours, the life of the peripheral driving circuit IC cannot keep up, and on the other hand, the overall life of the LED original is limited. Color rendering, single product prices, etc. are also limiting the development of LED technology.
"So, LED technology development still has a long way to go, there are still many technical obstacles to overcome." Hong Bing said, "This, because the landscape lighting field mainly emphasizes low power consumption, has become a relatively mature application area of â€‹â€‹LED. Secondly, LCD backlight Technology and functional lighting technology." According to statistics, as of 2015, LED market share in landscape lighting will reach 70%, and in the LCD backlight technology and general lighting field will reach 50% and 20% of the market. Occupancy rate."
Laurent Jenck, director of LED general lighting and power marketing at ON Semiconductor, also told the author at a media event: In the next 3 to 5 years, the existing market size of LEDs will be more than 10 times, and the LCD TV will be backlit. In the field, the market share will reach 50% after 3 years. â€
How do domestic 3,000 LED companies compete with international giants?
In the process of Hong Bing's speech, it was clearly stated that due to the influence of the industrial environment, domestic LED technology new-type enterprises have sprung up, and LED international manufacturers are also optimistic about China's annual production of 80% of the global incandescent lighting market, choose Established a factory in the Mainland. SemiLEDs and Cree have announced their establishment in Nanhai and Huizhou, respectively, and as of the first half of 2009, venture capital investment in China's domestic LED companies has exceeded 1.5 billion US dollars... Both companies are sharpening their knives and hope to take LED development. Dongfeng has a piece of cake.
Hong Bing said: "There are certainly a lot of bubbles in the current 3,000 LED companies. In the end, there will be about 3 to 5 companies left in this market. The vast majority will be lost in this battle." So how do domestic companies compete with big international companies? Is market opening a good or a bad thing for industrial development? With doubts, the author and Hong Bing conducted a deep level of communication.
Hong Bing said that LED is a new type of technology. At this point, international companies and our local companies are on the same starting line. However, due to the strong technology and abundant capital development technology of the former, it is bound to be more convenient. Local enterprises should try to avoid direct competition with international manufacturers when formulating product lines, and seek opportunities through the stitching of industrial links. For example, you can focus on the design of LED packaging technology or peripheral circuits.
As for the opening of the technology market, is it good or bad? Teacher Zhang Youguang said: "The arrival of large enterprises is indispensable to bring competition with local enterprises, but at the same time it brings us fresh technology and development concepts. It has helped a large number of outstanding professionals in China." For example, he said that in the automobile market a few years ago, the domestic market has been lagging behind because of government intervention. In recent years, the policy has been open, and the technical talents from famous foreign companies have promoted similar domestic brands such as Chery and Geely with fresh ideas. development of. "The LED field is no exception. Openness means competition, and competition means progress. This is not only a reminder of the technical personnel to upgrade themselves, but also an expression of industrial perfection."
Hong Bing senior lighting industry, 18 years of lighting market experience, worked in Panasonic, GE and Siemens' OSRAM company, is currently the general manager of LED Times Network.
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